Planejando um futuro de mudanças: priorização espacial para pequenos mamíferos na Caatinga
Climate Change, Caatinga, Zonation, Protected Areas, Rodentia, Didelphimorphia.
Human land use and climate change put species in double-jeopardy and that is a particular concern for arid and semi-arid regions in the world, such as the Caatinga biome in Northeast Brazil, and for small mammals inhabiting this unique region. Considering the scarcity of conservation resources and the urgency of stopping biodiversity decline, conservation actions such as the delimitation of Protected Areas (PAs) need to be targeted cost-efficiently and already consider the climate change. Using Ecological Niche Models and a spatial prioritization software, Zonation, we identify priority areas to preserve 40 small mammal species in the Caatinga under current climate and land use scenarios, and under future climate change. We also evaluate how well these priority areas are protected by currently PAs and identify ways forward to improve their protection. We have shown that the current Brazilian PA system does not sufficiently safeguard the diversity of small mammals in the Caatinga, and that it is poorly equipped to support the survival of these species under future climate change. need further protection. A cost-effective option for filling the spatial gaps in conservation of small mammals in the Caatinga is the upgrading of some Sustainable Use PAs into more restrictive ones.