Banca de DEFESA: RAFAEL DOS SANTOS MATIAS

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : RAFAEL DOS SANTOS MATIAS
DATE: 31/03/2022
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Sala de Aula do PPGRHS
TITLE:

Assessment of the impact of changes in land use and cover on energy generation in the São Francisco river basin

KEY WORDS:

São Francisco River, Land Use, Water Energy, Fault Filling, Modeling.

PAGES: 52
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia Sanitária
SUBÁREA: Recursos Hídricos
SPECIALTY: Planejamento Integrado dos Recursos Hídricos
SUMMARY:

The Brazilian energy matrix has an expressive amount of hydropower generation, a modality that is susceptible to the region's hydroclimatic conditions, although the waterfall system aims to mitigate this risk. The São Francisco river basin (BHRSF), highly important for the energy context of the northeast region, has been suffering the impacts of deforestation that can potentiate the adverse conditions that make hydroelectric plants need to reduce the minimum effluent flow from reservoirs. Changes in land use and cover can increase the frequency and intensity of surface runoff and/or reduce the recharge of aquifers, which sustain rivers in periods of drought. Among the techniques used to measure this influence, hydrological modeling is presented as an effective tool, including the scale of the basin studied. In this context, the present work will analyze the impact of changes in land use and cover on energy generation in the BHRSF through the hydrological simulation carried out by the Large Basin Model of the Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas (MGB-IPH). The simulation efficiency will be evaluated by the Nash and Sutcliffe coefficients (R²) and the root mean squared error (RMSE). To deal with the quality of the precipitation data, three gap filling methodologies will be applied. The study will be carried out according to scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), which contain five possible trends in social, economic, environmental and technological development. Differences between the results of each scenario will be evaluated through analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's test. It is expected to contribute to the understanding of the hydrological dynamics in the basin in the face of changes in land use and cover and to what extent this affects the region's energy sector.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1718531 - CARLOS RUBERTO FRAGOSO JUNIOR
Interno - 1640249 - MARLLUS GUSTAVO FERREIRA PASSOS DAS NEVES
Interno - 1357436 - VLADIMIR CARAMORI BORGES DE SOUZA
Externo à Instituição - ADRIANO ROLIM DA PAZ - UFPB