Study of Explanatory Variables of the Fraction of Impermeable Area
Flooding points; Urban planning; Remote sensing
Although the increase in artificial impervious areas is directly linked to urban growth, it is still common for municipalities not to foresee their evolution. A possible solution to this problem is to link the increase in the total impervious area to the growth of other vectors of urban growth. Given their spatial and temporal resolutions, satellite images from the LANDSAT mission are indicated for historical characterizations of land use and land cover for this purpose. Thus, this study aims to use data on road length (obtained through LANDSAT with the aid of QGIS) and population density (obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) to obtain forecast models of the total impermeable area. The effectiveness of the models will be validated with the aid of the Spearman and Pearson coefficients, as well as with the use of hypothesis tests. The regression will then have a 95% confidence band, within which the future impermeable area must be. With this, it will be possible to simulate the flow for different scenarios, obtaining three hydrographs for each project rain. It is expected that the results will offer an easily replicable method for cities with little waterproofing data, aiming to subsidize satisfactory diagnoses and predictions in urban planning instruments, such as Master Plans and Municipal Basic Sanitation Plans.