Banca de DEFESA: NATHÁLIA BISSAQUE PESSOTA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : NATHÁLIA BISSAQUE PESSOTA
DATE: 30/04/2024
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: ICAT
TITLE:

A Hybrid dynamic-statistical approach to climate forecast in Northeastern Brazil

KEY WORDS:

Weather forecasts, NMME, Precipitation, Average Temperatures, ENOS.

PAGES: 92
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SUMMARY:

The growing demand for accurate seasonal climate forecasts in the areas of energy,
agriculture, transportation, leisure, among others, can save lives, support emergency
management and improve response planning to the effects of climate, avoiding
economic losses with a high impact on society . In view of this, the main objective of
the present study is to calibrate raw predictions of direct model outputs from the
international project North-Amerian MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) for the Northeast
of Brazil (NEB), reducing systematic biases and increasing assertiveness for prognostic
purposes. monthly/quarterly precipitation data. The justification for this study is due to
the questioning of the predictive capacity of climate forecasting by models in specific
areas, as is the case of the NEB, as it presents climate response patterns associated with
modes of variability such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) . Precipitation data
from stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and state meteorology
centers in the Northeast will be used. Data from gridded analyzes made available by
XAVIER, CHIRPS and ERA5Land were also used. To correct systematic errors in the
NMME model, the Canonical Correlation Analysis (ACC) method will be used, which
consists of associating indices to each of the 2 sets of data in order to maximize the

correlation between the two indices, retaining as much information as possible.
contained in the original variables. Due to the non-linear aspects of the climate,
representation by simple statistical models, that is, based on linear relationships, with
those using multiple linear regressions, is called canonical correlation analysis and
therefore its use in this work is the combination of statistical knowledge with dynamic
modeling, resulting in the term called: hybrid coupled models.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1537309 - FABRICIO DANIEL DOS SANTOS SILVA
Interno(a) - 2347007 - HELBER BARROS GOMES
Interno(a) - 2260690 - RAFAELA LISBOA COSTA
Externo(a) à Instituição - SANDRA ISAY SAAD