Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARIA JOSE DA SILVA LIMA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARIA JOSE DA SILVA LIMA
DATE: 31/05/2021
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

 CLIMATE ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN DESERTIFICATION NUCLEUS

KEY WORDS:

Desertification nucleus, ENOS, Northeastern Brazil, Ondaleta Cruzada

PAGES: 52
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SUMMARY:

This study aims to study / analyze, using various statistical methods, the possible climatic causes that influence the desertification process in the desertification nuclei existing in Brazil. Precipitation and temperature data from the cities that make up the desertification nuclei of Brazil were used, from the National Water Agency, the National Meteorology Institute and the Cearense Meteorology and Water Resources Foundation. Atlantic Dipole, South Oscillation Index, Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decennial Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecenary Oscillation data from the Earth System Research Laboratory / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were also used. With rainfall data from the Irauçuba desertification nucleus, the Rainfall Anomaly Index (IAC) was generated. With the precipitation and temperature data from the Irauçuba core, in addition to the Boxplot-type graphs, they were subjected to trend analysis, wave analysis and cross wave analysis. It was observed that the rainy season in Irauçuba covers the period from January to April, with the month of March having the highest record of precipitation, with an average value of 127.70 mm. The drought period occurs from May to December, when rainfall totals show a sharp decrease, mainly in the months of August to November. The Boxplot showed that the rainfall extremes in Irauçuba showed rainfall accumulated between 100 mm to 432.50 mm and the temperature extremes were between 28.2 ° C to 29.9 ° C. It was verified through the IAC that during the analyzed period, there were 16 years with positive IACs and 23 years with negative IACs, that is, there were more dry years than wet years. In addition, before the year 2000, there were 9 rainy years and 10 dry years; after that year, 7 rainy years and 13 dry years were recorded, thus evidencing that the first period of the series is more rainy than the one after 2000. Trends of decrease in precipitation were detected in Irauçuba indicating that the rains that occurred in the locality have been decreasing gradually over time, with a -0.9078 trend in the series. The temperature, on the other hand, showed a slight upward trend, presenting a trend in the 0.0833 series, suggesting that the temperature tends to increase. Ondaleta's analyzes showed that the seasonal scale, the 4-year scale associated with the extended ENOS, the 11-year scale related to the sunspot cycle and the Atlantic dipole, were the ones that most influenced the precipitation series. For the temperature series, the most striking scales were the 1-2 year scales associated with the ENOS scale, the 3-7 year scale linked to the extended ENOS, the 8-11 year scale associated with the Atlantic Dipole and the scale 32 years old linked to OIP. In the analysis of cross wave and coherence waves, greater coherence was observed between the precipitation series of the Desertification Nucleus of Irauçuba and Dipole do Atlântico in the time scales of 1-3.5 years and 8 years, in the time scale of 3.5 years the historical precipitation series of Irauçuba and Dipolo do Atlântico were out of phase

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1772619 - DJANE FONSECA DA SILVA
Externo ao Programa - 1292888 - JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR
Interna - 1653612 - MARIA LUCIENE DIAS DE MELO