Banca de DEFESA: THAYWANNE NOVAES DE ALMEIDA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : THAYWANNE NOVAES DE ALMEIDA
DATE: 10/08/2021
TIME: 09:30
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

IMPACTS ON BEAN PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL UNDER CONDITIONS OF THE CLIMATIC SCENARIO CPR 4.5

KEY WORDS:

Agrometeorological model. Global Climate Models. Statistical Downscaling. Brazilian Northeast.

PAGES: 75
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SUMMARY:

Beans are a demanding legume in climatic conditions, rainfall and temperatures, in
general, are the main meteorological variables that affect its development and
productivity. In the Northeast Region of Brazil (NEB), the bean crop is one of the most
practiced and important, whether from a social or economic point of view, and is based
on family farming, which has few technological resources. The NEB is inserted, most of
its territory, in the semi-arid climate, characteristic of droughts and prolonged droughts,
factors that directly influence the productivity of agricultural crops and which,
according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tends towards an
increase in temperatures . From this perspective, this research aimed to analyze the
impact of climate change on bean yield, based on the climate change scenario RCP4.5,
through an agrometeorological model of penalty for water deficit. Three homogeneous
groups of productivity were identified in the NEB, based on IBGE data between 1974
and 2018 of 1817 municipalities. Of these municipalities, it was possible to calibrate
and validate the agrometeorological model in 73, as they present reliable meteorological
and productivity data, classified into three groups (low, medium and high productivity).
These productivity patterns reflect important parameters, such as the maximum
technological yield and the water deficit sensitivity factor. To generate regionalized
future scenarios and assess the impacts of climate change on edible beans productivity,
the statistical downscaling technique was used for the RCP4.5 scenario. Six global
climate models that made up the fifth IPCC report were used: the Canadian CANESM2,
the French CNRM-CM5 and IPSL-CM5A-MR, the American GFDL-ESM2M, the
German MPI-ESMMR, and the Norwegian model NORESM1-MS. Through the
models, the NEB areas that will have an impact on productivity were observed, based
on the climatological period of simulations, for the years 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and
2071-2100. The simulations indicate that most NEB producing municipalities will have
their productivity reduced, as a direct consequence of the tendency of significant
reduction in accumulated precipitation, and of an increase in temperatures, which will
therefore increase potential evapotranspiration.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1537309 - FABRICIO DANIEL DOS SANTOS SILVA
Externo à Instituição - JOÃO HUGO BARACUY DA CUNHA CAMPOS
Interna - 1653612 - MARIA LUCIENE DIAS DE MELO