Banca de DEFESA: IVENS COELHO PEIXOTO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : IVENS COELHO PEIXOTO
DATE: 19/08/2021
TIME: 09:30
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

PREDICTIVE POTENTIAL OF CORN PRODUCTIVITY IN THE MESOREGIONS OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

KEY WORDS:

Agricultural production, canonical correlation analysis, climate variability
modes.

PAGES: 56
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SUMMARY:

The irregularity of rainfall and weather events such as drought have a direct impact on
agricultural production in the Brazilian Northeast (NEB). For a better understanding of
the precipitation x production relationship, rainfall was accumulated in three different
semesters, or growing seasons, relative to the rainiest periods in the different NEB
mesoregions: January to June (northern NEB mesoregions), April to September
(Mesoregions of NEB eastern NEB) and October to March (western NEB mesoregions).
This research was conducted for the 30-year period 1981-2010, and the crop analyzed
was corn. The direct correlation between half-yearly accumulated figures and
production showed weak to moderate values (from 0,3 to 0,7). A model based on the
canonical correlations analysis technique was built using as a predictor the average
semiannual accumulated in each mesoregion and predicting the annual productions of
each mesoregion. The model showed high dexterity when comparing the simulated and
observed productions, and the correlations changed from moderate to strong (0,4 to
0,9). Furthermore, the relationship between two modes of variability, ENSO phases and
Atlantic dipole phases with production was carried out for the same period,
demonstrating that the highest productions are observed in years that combined negative
dipole with ENSO phases, and with smaller yields in years that combined positive
dipole with ENSO phases, notably the combination positive dipole and positive ENSO.
In years with the combined neutrality condition of the two modes, maize production
between 1981 and 2010 was also well below average in most of the northeastern
mesoregions.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Interna - 1772619 - DJANE FONSECA DA SILVA
Presidente - 1537309 - FABRICIO DANIEL DOS SANTOS SILVA
Externo à Instituição - LINCOLN ELOI DE ARAÚJO - UFPB