Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: FLAVIA DE FRANCA SANTOS

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : FLAVIA DE FRANCA SANTOS
DATE: 06/04/2023
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: videoconferência
TITLE:

Heat wave and droughy trends in northeast Brazil and its impacts on agriculture.

KEY WORDS:

Heatwaves, Droughts, Climate change, Agricultural production, Northeast Brazil.

PAGES: 44
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SUMMARY:

Climate change (CM) has a direct impact on global everyday life, affecting biological and social aspects. In Brazil, since 1960, CMs have influenced society, mainly due to the increase in air temperatures and the intensification of Heatwaves (HW), droughts and intense rains. The HW are climatic phenomena, dependent on temperature and heat, which directly affect agriculture, impacting the cultivation of soy, coffee, corn, rice, beans and several other crops of food and economic importance. The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) is characterized by the high availability of solar energy, temperature and, consequently, water evaporation, factors that are intensified in the semi-arid region that encompasses most of the NEB. Thus, the objective of this study is to identify and quantify trends in the occurrence of OC and droughts in the Northeast Region of Brazil and the impacts on agricultural production.For this purpose, data collected from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) will be used, where historical series of precipitation, minimum, maximum and average temperatures data will be analyzed, and annual agricultural production data from the nine capitals of the Northeast, made available by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), for the last 41 years of production, in order to seek correlations between both parameters. The OC events will be obtained through the CTX90pct and CTN90pct indices that comprise a heatwave as a period of 3 consecutive days and 90% percentile for daily maximum temperatures. For the selection of drought events the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) will be used. In order to assess the impacts of meteorological elements and their climatic changes on agricultural production, a study will be carried out at NEB considering the evolution of agricultural production over the years, through the adjustment of Technological Trend (TT), which considers production as a variable dependent and years as the independent variable. Finally, all data will have statistical significance confirmed from the evaluation of the descriptive data obtained. Based in this study, it is expected to understand the influence of HW in NEB, focusing on agricultural production, aiming to help the development of public policies to face CM in NEB, reducing the negative social and economic impacts.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externo(a) à Instituição - ANA CAROLINE DE MELO MORAIS
Interno(a) - 1537309 - FABRICIO DANIEL DOS SANTOS SILVA
Presidente - 2347007 - HELBER BARROS GOMES
Interno(a) - 3060134 - MARIA CRISTINA LEMOS DA SILVA