FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SHORT-CYCLE CROPS IN THE
STATE OF ALAGOAS WITH CMIP6 MODELS
rainfall, canonical correlation analysis, CMIP6, agricultural yield.
Climate change will affect various productive sectors of society, with emphasis on food production. In the
case of subsistence agriculture, which does not employ the technology and mechanization used by
agribusiness, the consequences should be even more direct. Thus, employing methods that increase the
reliability of the outputs of global climate models (GCMs) used in the generation of future climate
scenarios is fundamental, in order to be able to infer the real impacts of climate change. In this sense, the
objective of this research is to evaluate and calibrate the current and future forecasts of precipitation from
GCMs used in the preparation of the CMIP6 results, and apply such data in a model based on the
relationship between rainfall and productivity in order to analyze which impacts on the productivity of
three subsistence crops cultivated in Alagoas: beans, corn and cassava.